In the first part of this case study the phenomenological dynamics of RSPK was compared with the dynamics of the 1952 UFO wave, using Walter von Lucadou’s MPI. It is quite clear that from a descriptive standpoint, both RSPKs and the 1952 UFO wave share similar patterns. But it is crucial to understand that von Lucadou’s model is not just a predictive description based on empirical observation (he is not a Hume-like empiricist). His model is actually based on system theory and quantum physics, which gives it a much stronger external validity.
MPI four phases and pragmatic information
The MPI is based on the notion that psi effects are fundamentally manipulations of information through a pragmatic (or meaningful) intent by ways of what quantum physics calls “non-locality”. Pragmatic information is modified within two or more systems (which can be a person, an object, a weather pattern, etc) simultaneously without having any observable cause-and-effect (i.e. non-locality). In the case of paranormal events, the information can be expressed as either Extra Sensorial Perception (ESP) (precognition, telepathy, remote-viewing, etc.) or as Psychokinesis (PK) (telekinesis, apparitions, imprinting, etc.). In the particular case of PK effects, the concept of information means that matter’s shape or motion is actually information. Such information can be modified by physical means in a normal context (e.g. pushing a ball), or by non-physical psi means in a paranormal context.[1]
The notion of psi as information is quite useful to explain one of the key findings of scientific parapsychology: psi phenomena are inherently elusive. This may sound banal, but this has important consequences for researching and understanding psi effects. In short, what it means is that for a system to be modified through psi means there must be enough indeterminacy in it so that non-normal (or non-deterministic) outcomes can occur. To fully appreciate this issue, it needs to be decomposed further.
Information is not something static, and it is something that is fully reflexive. Those who create information modify information around them as well. This notion is called in quantum physics “preparing a system”. Quantum physics is now fully aware that just looking into a system is actually putting information into such a system.[2] The most common example in physics is that if an experiment is set to look into light and assumes that light is made of particles, then the light will behave as particles as a result of experimentation. Conversely, if the experiment is based on the notion that light is made of wavelength then the system will be observed as wavelengths. Such a process is called in quantum physics “preparing” a system, because the way we choose to look at a system prepares it to be a certain way. The same happens in the social sciences. When an anthropologists studies and report on a particular cultural, his/her work modifies such culture by creating a greater awareness of cultural practices among the studied people.
This notion of system preparation is fundamental to understand psi effects. The more intensely a system is observed, the less indeterminacy there will be in it. Observation increases the amount of order in a system through the added information, and therefore the less likely a psi effect is to occur. This explains the fundamental elusiveness of psi. Concretely, this has been observed by many “ghost hunters” where something strange usually occurs when the recording equipment is being packed up and people start to talk about other things than the haunting. In the context of scientific parapsychology, this phenomenon has been described by many authors like Owen and Sparrow[3], or Batcheldor[4], where every time that a PK effect occurs the recording system had either a malfunction or was not set properly. The malfunction or improper setting allowed the system to be not “too prepared” (in the quantum physics sense) and thus preserved enough indeterminacy in the system so that the psi effect could occur.
In von Lucadou’s model, it is described as a relationship between “Novelty” and “Confirmation.” A psi effect is more likely to continue to occur when it is something new and unanticipated; because of such novelty it makes people looking everywhere and anywhere for an explanation and thus, they do not focus on a particular system (i.e. they do not put a lot of information in indeterminate systems). The more people focus on a particular system to have confirmation that it is a paranormal event, the less likely it will produce a psi effect because by doing so they inject information into it. This is the fundamental elusiveness of psi. To put in von Lucadou’s words, “the system ‘can only behave as it pleases’ as long as one does not observe it with great care.”[5]
The 1952 UFO wave and elusiveness
The overall setting in the United States, in the early 1950s, was certainly one where “novelty” was possible. At that time, the country was the only one paying any attention to the UFO phenomenon through the collection and analysis of UFO sightings (mostly by military personnel), and channelled to a central repository called the Project Blue Book. This situation is perfectly understandable, as it was the only country at that time that appeared to experience an ongoing UFO phenomenon, an issue explicitly stated in 1948.[6] Yet, as it was underlined by so many ufologists, up to the 1952 Washington D.C. UFO incidents, the U.S. military was paying only scant attention to UFOs. In other words, they were able to observe the system, but they were not collectively really paying attention to it. Such are the key conditions for a psi effect to occur, according to the MPI.
The Washington D.C. incidents are full of examples of phenomena ceasing when confirmation became possible. For instance:
(1) In the night of 19-20 July 1952, around midnight, the airman William Brady at Andrew AFB saw the orange lights in the sky. He called his co-workers to have a look. When they arrived the balls were gone.
(2) On 20 July, around 3:00 am, as soon as the F-94 jet fighters could be seen on the ground radar screens, the objects immediately vanished from the radar screens. This scenario will be repeated a number of times during the night of 26-27 July.
(3) On the night of 26-27 July, F-94 fighter jets lost the objects from their on board combat radar as soon as they were able to get a lock-on.
(4) On both the 20 and 27 July, the objects disappeared as soon as there was enough sunlight to see them distinctly.[7]
Such elusiveness is very often interpreted as a sign of “intelligent” control, and thus many deducted that UFOs must be spaceships from another world. A similar deductive process occurs in RSPKs and hauntings cases where an evil spirit or the soul of a deceased person is “accused” of being behind the phenomenon. However, in light of the MPI, we, the living human beings on Earth, are the source of such apparent intelligence by reducing or increasing the indeterminacy within a phenomenon depending if we focus or not on it.
The attribution of the phenomenon’s cause to a particular agent (e.g. extraterrestrials) is necessary for the phenomenon to continue occurring, and that’s why von Lucadou calls the second phase “displacement”. If there is no displacement towards a presumed a particular agent, then the phenomenon would end right there. In 1952, the phenomenon was able to continue between the initial surprises of 19-20 July because the phenomenon was displaced through the press into a belief that “flying saucers” were observed, although the civilian and military aviation personnel did not appear to consider such possibility as a valid one. What this means is that by becoming an unexplainable phenomenon (i.e. flying saucers in this case, or an evil spirit in the case of RSPK) people’s look is being displaced to something else than the system at play, and therefore the indeterminacy can continue to be.
Here it is also crucial to note that as people are looking at everything and nothing in particular through the notion of “flying saucers” (or evil spirit in the case of RSPK), there are usually a number of false calls that get in the picture. As well, it is oftentimes an implicit invitation for pranksters to get involved as people are more open, for a short time, to various interpretations including incredible ones. In any macro psi event (including UFO waves), the notion of frauds, hoaxes, misperceptions and genuine psi effects should be put on a continuum of information production rather than be considered as distinct categories. This is because they all participate in either maintaining or reducing the indeterminacy in the system at play.
Going back to the 1952 Washington D.C. incidents, it is quite possible that misperceptions and temperature inversions produced information that was interpreted as “flying saucers”. The fact that these sources had nothing paranormal is not that important in the context of MPI, they contributed to reinforce the displacement towards “flying saucers,” for a while, and therefore continued to maintain indeterminacy in the system at play.
It is needless to say that after the night of 26-27 July, with press coverage that ensued, as well as President Truman asking what was going on, the civilian and military aviation personnel were on the high alert to figure out what was going on. As well, with the official explanation of temperature inversions given on 29 July, the system was observed as such, and the findings where corroborated that indeed there was a lot of temperature inversions. In other words, from that point on the system was prepared for a high degree of confirmation, and it is not surprising that it was at that very time the psi effects started to decline.
The suppression phase injects an even higher degree of information in the system, as it is formally defined by those who have authority and power as something inconsequential (e.g. temperature inversion, dreams and misperceptions, etc.). It is also important to note that modern societies tend to follow through with most official explanations, which injects even more information in the system at play. In the case of the 1952 events, it is difficult to know if the recommendations of the Robertson panel were really followed, but it was certainly a good indication of the mindset at the time. Once again, such suppression is not a matter of the people in position of authority hiding a terrible secret, but rather hiding their incapacity to deal with such phenomena. There is nothing unusual about this, as “impression management” is a key feature of any modern bureaucracy. Anyone who worked in a governmental policy-related position or any student in Public Administration or Government Studies knows that. The best example of that is the once classified and so-called “Pentacle” memorandum of January 1953, written in preparation of the standing up of the Robertson Panel, (and Ruppelt was one of the addresses), calling for establishing a large network of UFO surveillance.[8] Anyone who had any experience of writing for government can see that this memo was written by or for someone who was desperately looking for an answer and who was most likely under a lot of pressure from his superiors to deliver. The proposals found in this memo clearly show that information about UFOs should be curtailed from the general public, but also show that they did not know what UFO were.
The MPI phases and people
RSPKs are caused by people who unconsciously use psi to convey pragmatic information, or a message, to their environment; to draw attention to themselves and their problems. The typical RSPK is caused by a person (called the focus person) that has a lot of anger but cannot express it for various psychological reasons, and the paranormal means become an alternate but unconscious way of communicating with their social environment. As discussed above, the interaction with people in the environment (whether they put information in the system or not) will determine how long the phenomenon will continue. Hence, the focus person should not be considered as the sole cause of the phenomenon. As well, the focus person oftentimes does not realise in the early phases that he or she has something to do with it because it is caused by unconscious mental processes. There are other RSPKs where “the focus person seems to be much more passive, for instance, it is very often a person who suffers from depression and is not able to control anything in his or her life and also not in her environment. This in contrast to the active RSPK focus person where one gets the impression of a boiling pot, which is ready to explode, and the phenomena are just the sign of an ‘explosion.’ With the passive ones the opposite is the case.[9]
Whether the RSPK is caused by an active or passive focus person, there is always a similar cast of people in a RSPK.
Von Lucadou’s chart of the social organization of RSPKs [10]
The Environment is made of the people immediately around the focus person like the family, co-workers, neighbours, etc, and they allow the system to maintain its indeterminacy during the surprise phase. The Naive observers category is made of psychics, mediums and self-appointed parapsychologists who “come to the rescue”, as well as sensationalist journalists, and by displacing the interpretation of the phenomenon they allow the system to remain indeterminate during the displacement phase. The Critical observers category is made of various sceptics, professional parapsychologists, public health officials, etc, who by seeking confirmation reduce the indeterminacy in the system during the decline phase. Finally, the Society is made of those in position of authority and the rest of the society judging the situation usually through the “serious” press, and removes any indeterminacy left in the system during the suppression phase.
In the case of the 1952 UFO wave, the Environment can be clearly identified as the civilian and military aviation personnel, as well as flight crews of civilian jet liners and military fighter pilots. They were key figures in the surprise phase.
The Naive observers were the journalists that congregated in the radar room, and probably the many “saucer enthusiasts” who read the news clipping after the first incident of 19-20 July. They were the key actors during the displacement phase.
The Critical observers were the members of the Project Blue Book, Edward Ruppelt in particular, and other technical military personnel represented at the 29 July press conference. Their intervention was linked directly to the beginning of the decline phase.
The Society was the public, who read the “debunking” news about the Washington D.C. incidents, and the people represented on the Robertson Panel, and they were the central actors of the suppression phase.
What is missing, however, is a clearly identifiable focus person(s) that could help us understanding why a major UFO incident occurred around Washington D.C. in July 1952, and what was the meaning behind it (i.e. what was the content of the pragmatic information). Uncovering who were the focus persons will be the aim of the third and last part of this case study.
References for part 2
[1] For more information on the quantum/information theories of psi in parapsychology, please refer to Radin, Dean. Entangled Minds: Extrasensory experiences in a quantum reality. New York: Paraview, 2006, pp. 250-266.
[2] For more on this please refer to Rosenblum, Bruce and Fred Kuttner. (2006). Quantum Enigma: Physics encounters consciousness. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
[3] Owen, Iris M. and M. Sparrow. (1976). Conjuring up Philip: An Adventure In Psychokinesis. Harper & Row.
[4] Batcheldor, Kenneth J. (1984). “Contributions to the theory of PK induction from sitter-group work”. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research 78(2): 105-122.
[5] Lucadou, Walter von and F. Zahradnik. (2004). “Predictions of the Model of Pragmatic Information about RSPK”. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 (99-112), p. 106.
[6] Lipp Report in Steiger, Brad. (1976) Project Blue Book. New York: Ballantine Books, p. 213.
[7] Examples drawn from Randle, Kevin D. (2001). Invasion Washington: UFOs over the Capitol. New York: Harper Collins, pp. 32-74.
[8] A copy of this memorandum and an explanation of the context in which it emerged can be found on the CUFON’s website on Internet at http://www.cufon.org/cufon/pentacle.htm
[9] Lucadou, Walter von and F. Zahradnik. (2004). “Predictions of the Model of Pragmatic Information about RSPK”. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 (99-112), p. 110.
[10] Ibid., p. 102.
Eric Ouellet © 2009
This blog is dedicated to the conceptual and empirical development of parasociology, a sub-discipline of sociology studying how societies and paranormal or “psi” phenomena interact. It looks into phenomena like UFOs, Marian Apparitions, Poltergeists, and Parapsychology.
Showing posts with label Washington D.C. 1952 wave. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington D.C. 1952 wave. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Friday, December 25, 2009
The 1952 UFO wave and Washington D.C.: A case study in parasociology (Part 1)
This post is the second major parasociological case study proposed on this blog (the first being the Barney and Betty Hill story). It looks at the 1952 UFO wave in the United States, emphasizing the events around Washington D.C. in July of the same year. One of the main objectives of parasociology is to explore the possibility that social events might have paranormal or “psi” implications. UFO waves were selected as a prime research object because they are, in themselves, social events which are unexplainable through traditional scientific means. The central question, therefore, is whether strange events in the air are linked to and dependent on events on the ground?
To answer this question it is necessary to analyze the data in a meaningful way, and as much as possible by avoiding a reinvention of the wheel. As discussed in several previous posts, UFO waves seem to have a lot in common with poltergeist events, better known as Recurrent Spontaneous Psychokinesis (RSPK) in parapsychology. The study of RSPK has progressed in the last 30 years, and one of the most potent models to study them is the one developed by the German parapsychologist Walter von Lucadou.
His model is called the Model of Pragmatic Information (MPI), and it is inspired by system theory, quantum physics and many years of empirical research on RSPK. Von Lucadou has a Ph.D. in physics, and a Ph.D. in psychology. He is the head of a research institute on the paranormal in Freiburg, Germany, which is funded by the German government. Unfortunately, even if he published many peer-reviewed articles in scholarly journal in English, his work is not that well-known in the English-speaking world. Hence, as part of this case study, a relatively extensive presentation of his model will be required, but it will be integrated in the case analysis.
The 1952 UFO wave: the basics
It is difficult to establish what constitutes a UFO wave because it has many undefined dimensions. For instance, how many sightings are necessary to have a wave? Over how long a period do we need to have a wave? Are waves only possible if there are newspapers to report them, and hence is it a mass media phenomenon? What percentage of sightings should be “unexplained” to be a “real” wave? Etc. As one can see, defining what constitutes a wave includes a large degree of interpretation. Yet, there are many pitfalls related to developing water-tight definitions for events that are essentially based on perception. To avoid such conundrum, it is proposed to look at the notion of UFO wave from both a relative and sociological standpoint. A wave would therefore be a significant increase in UFO observations compared to other time periods, and such significant increase in UFO observations gets the attention of a relatively large portion of a society. Given this definition, each society would have it own “list” of UFO waves. In the case of the United States, according to this perspective on UFO wave there would have been only 3 major waves: 1897-98, 1952, and 1973.
Statistically, the 1952 UFO wave was the largest one in the United States between 1947 and 1973. The famous ufologist Allan Hynek did a detailed review of all cases submitted to the Project Blue Book (from 1947 to 1969). His analysis was based on the 600 or so cases (out of 13,000) that were considered as "Unidentified."[1] Of those 600 cases, 242 occurred in 1952 (out of about 400 sightings over all reported to Blue Book for 1952), making it the peak year for the period covered by the Project Blue Book. 1954 came as a distant second with 46 “Unidentified” cases.[2]
If one pushes the analysis further within the year 1952, the peak month was July with 55 “unidentified” cases, followed by June with 40 cases, August with 28 cases and September with 27 cases.[3] Hynek did not extend his analysis to cases within the month of July 1952. However, if one uses the NICAP compilation of reports (which does not distinguish between “identified” and “unidentified”), there was three peaks in July: a small peak of sightings on July 12, a second peak between 21 and 23 July, and the biggest peak between 27 and 29 July.[4]
The 1952 sightings occurred across the United States, from the West coast to the East coast, as well as where there were U.S. military installations (Korea, Okinawa, Greenland, Newfoundland, Germany). This military nature of sightings was simply a reporting effect, as many cases reported to the Project Blue Book came as a requirement for military personnel to report such observations. The events that grabbed the most attention, however, were two series of sightings that occurred around Washington D.C., interestingly a day before each of the main peaks for July, namely on the night of July 19-20, and the night of July 26-27.
(Notoriously fake picture done with automobiles light reflecting on a glass)
The MPI model for RSPK: The 4 phases
To test the hypothesis that UFO waves would be “grand scale poltergeists,” it is essential to evaluated whether UFO waves share the same fundamental characteristics that of RSPK events. On the surface, these two types of phenomena appear completely distinct. RSPKs occur usually in a house or a work place, they tend to involve the inexplicable movement, destruction or disappearance of mundane objects such as glasses, cutlery, bookshelves, windows, mirrors, etc. RSPKs are often linked to a particular individual in a family or work context.
Yet, if one looks beyond the surface and compare the structural components of UFO waves and RSPKs, one can find striking similarities. According to von Lucadou, RSPKs go through four phases, where the phenomenon tends to increase in intensity at the beginning, peak and then rapidly disappear. The four phases are: (1) surprise, (2) displacement, (3) decline, and (4) suppression. Let’s compare these phases with the 1952 UFO wave.
Phase one: the surprise
Von Lucadou describes the first phase in those terms: “Generally, their onset is completely unexpected and they develop dramatically. As long as those involved believe that the events are due to external factors, like someone who is fooling them, impulses in electrical circuitry, leaking pipes, etc., the phenomena become stronger and grow into a real demonstration. Those involved feel ever more insecure and try to find external assistance, for example from the police, firemen or from institutions who can provide technical assistance. In this way the phenomena attract wide attention. In many cases there are a number of respectable, reliable and independent witnesses, who feel completely desperate about the causes of the phenomena. We call this the ‘surprise phase.’” [5]
The 1952 events in Washington are very similar in their structure to the surprise phase. Around 11:40 pm on 19 July 1952, the air controller Edward Nugent at the National Airport noticed on the radar a strange blip showing a high rate of acceleration. He called the senior controller, Harry Barnes, to confirm the radar returns. They then verified that their equipment was functioning properly, which was the case. They asked and got confirmation from a second radar station at the National Airport. Another controller, Howard Cocklin, saw orange lights in the night sky in the direction where the radar returns were coming. They asked confirmation from the radar crew at Andrews Air Force Base (AFB), and there was no return, but two military persons in different locations, William Brady and Bill Goodman, saw orange lights in the sky. [6] It is interesting to note that Nugent and Barnes did not know what to think of all this, but they never thought that these returns were “ flying saucers” or Russians aircrafts, and that if they did not appeared to be manufactured objects, they seemed to be under intelligent control.[7]
Later on during the night, 3 different radar stations had the same strange returns. F-94 jet fighters were scrambles during the night but to no avail, the objects disappeared.
Phase two: Displacement
The second phase is described as thus: “It is followed by the first hunches that something supernatural might be going on. Indeed, the media, such as newspapers, radio and television show up. Depending upon the socio-cultural background, the phenomena may be attributed to phantoms, spirits, the deceased, witches, poltergeists and parapsychological powers. Only at this point do parapsychologists have the opportunity to get involved. Quite often the previous phase of hunches has already attributed the phenomena to one or more persons, and has coupled general desperation and anxieties with curiosity: the "displacement phase". During this phase, the interpretation of the phenomena shifts from external to internal sources. The same displacement takes place in the phenomena themselves. New types of events manifest, replacing those that had become familiar.” [8]
On the 21 July 1952, newspapers were reporting that “flying saucers” were seen in the sky of Washington D.C., but the coverage was relatively limited. Yet, the story was now out. During the second set of sightings, on 26-27 July, there were several journalists in the National Airport radar room. [9]The story repeats itself in many ways, but with some differences. The first sightings occurred during the day, in the afternoon of 26 July that are noticed visually and on radar at Langley AFB. Then, the crew of an airliner of National Airlines saw glowing lights around 8:30 pm. It is only around 10:30 that the National Airport radars returned something unusual, and the controllers started the process of getting confirmation.
During the night, several F-94 jets fighters were scrambled and in some occasion were able to see strange lights and even had briefly their combat radar locked on those lights. But then, too, the object just vanished to come back later during the night. Although no one had any confirmation that the objects were solid as there was only radar returns and the visual sightings of lights, the press on the next morning did not hesitate to talk about D.C. being swarmed by “flying saucers”.
Phase three: Decline
The third phase is von Lucadou’s model is the one of decline. “As bad as matters are, worse is still to come. Journalists hungry for sensation, self-appointed "parapsychologists" or "exorcists" will plague those involved. To the external curiosity is added an ever-stronger pressure to reproduce the phenomena, which are still strongly confirmed by the initial eyewitnesses. The stronger this pressure grows, sometimes even enhanced by the parapsychologists who rush to the scene, the less the phenomena occur: the "decline phase" has begun. Many of those who expected sensational effects are now disappointed and leave. Often enough, the person who evoked the events is found to make use of manipulations or fraud during this phase.” [11]
This phase occurred also in the 1952 wave. The word was out, and even President Truman wanted to be informed about what was going on. The journalists were on the alert for more, but no more major sighting occurred in the Washington D.C. area, and in fact the 1952 wave started to decline in August, as discussed above. The most significant event of this phase is the 29 July military press conference at the Pentagon, where senior military officials and head of technical services of the Air Force concluded that it was a big misunderstanding and that the radar returns were most likely caused by temperature inversion while the lights in the sky were simply stars having the appearance of wobbling because of humidity in the atmosphere. In other words, all the witnesses were wrong even if they were experienced technicians and military personnel.[12]
Phase four: suppression
The last phase of the MPI model is called suppression, and should be quite familiar to those who know the ufological literature. “Decline is followed by the final phase of poltergeist cases: ’suppression.’ Fraud is more or less openly discussed, the people and witnesses involved are often ridiculed and discriminated in the mass media, witnesses may even deny (in court) their previous statements and debunking articles are published. The process of social suppression starts: a ‘conspiracy to cover it up,’ as Fanny Moser (1977, p. 30) termed it.”[13] Such conspiracy, however, is not caused because people have secrets to hide, but rather because they not want to be seen as being ignorant or powerless. As von Lucadou wrote, “neither society nor governmental institutions are fond of the anarchy of poltergeist cases. Their objective is to command (or govern) reliable systems.”[14]
In the case of the 1952 UFO wave, the suppression was done mostly through the efforts of the so-called Robertson panel[15], that also concluded that 90% of UFO sightings are mistakes or hoaxes, and the 10% remaining could be accounted for by temperature inversion phenomena and other more exotic natural phenomena. The panel also recommended that a mass public education programme about UFOs should be put in place so that the U.S. Air Force would not get swamped by reports from civilians. Although the report was classified, several parts of it became public in 1956 when Edward Ruppelt, who was head of the Project Blue Book up to the end of 1953, published his book The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects.
Phases and pragmatic information
These four phases are not simply descriptive characteristics of a RSPK, they actually represent a process of transferring pragmatic information necessary for psi effects to occur. Such information flow will be the topic of part 2 of this case study.
References for Part 1
[1] Hynek, J. Allen. The Hynek UFO Report. New York: Dell, 1977, p. 264.
[2] Idem.
[3] Hynek, J. Allen. The Hynek UFO Report. New York: Dell, 1977, p. 263.
[4]NICAP. “The 1952 Sighting Wave” on the Internet at: http://www.nicap.org/waves/1952fullrep.htm , consulted 27 June 2009.
[5] Lucadou, Walter von and F. Zahradnik. (2004). “Predictions of the Model of Pragmatic Information about RSPK”. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 (99-112), p. 100.
[6] From Randle, Kevin D. (2001). Invasion Washington: UFOs over the Capitol. New York: Harper Collins, pp. 32-34.
[7] Ibid., p. 39.
[8] Lucadou, Walter von and F. Zahradnik. (2004). “Predictions of the Model of Pragmatic Information about RSPK”. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 (99-112), p. 100.
[9] Randle, Kevin D. (2001). Invasion Washington: UFOs over the Capitol. New York: Harper Collins, p. 70.
[10] Ibid., pp. 68-74.
[11] Lucadou, Walter von and F. Zahradnik. (2004). “Predictions of the Model of Pragmatic Information about RSPK”. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 (99-112), p. 100.
[12] For the full transcript please see the NICAP website on Internet at http://www.nicap.org/waves/pressconf_1952.htm
[13] Ibid., p. 101.
[14] Ibid., p. 105.
[15] For more on the Robertson Panel, please see the Durant report on the CUFON website on Internet at http://www.cufon.org/cufon/robert.htm
Eric Ouellet © 2009
To answer this question it is necessary to analyze the data in a meaningful way, and as much as possible by avoiding a reinvention of the wheel. As discussed in several previous posts, UFO waves seem to have a lot in common with poltergeist events, better known as Recurrent Spontaneous Psychokinesis (RSPK) in parapsychology. The study of RSPK has progressed in the last 30 years, and one of the most potent models to study them is the one developed by the German parapsychologist Walter von Lucadou.
His model is called the Model of Pragmatic Information (MPI), and it is inspired by system theory, quantum physics and many years of empirical research on RSPK. Von Lucadou has a Ph.D. in physics, and a Ph.D. in psychology. He is the head of a research institute on the paranormal in Freiburg, Germany, which is funded by the German government. Unfortunately, even if he published many peer-reviewed articles in scholarly journal in English, his work is not that well-known in the English-speaking world. Hence, as part of this case study, a relatively extensive presentation of his model will be required, but it will be integrated in the case analysis.
The 1952 UFO wave: the basics
It is difficult to establish what constitutes a UFO wave because it has many undefined dimensions. For instance, how many sightings are necessary to have a wave? Over how long a period do we need to have a wave? Are waves only possible if there are newspapers to report them, and hence is it a mass media phenomenon? What percentage of sightings should be “unexplained” to be a “real” wave? Etc. As one can see, defining what constitutes a wave includes a large degree of interpretation. Yet, there are many pitfalls related to developing water-tight definitions for events that are essentially based on perception. To avoid such conundrum, it is proposed to look at the notion of UFO wave from both a relative and sociological standpoint. A wave would therefore be a significant increase in UFO observations compared to other time periods, and such significant increase in UFO observations gets the attention of a relatively large portion of a society. Given this definition, each society would have it own “list” of UFO waves. In the case of the United States, according to this perspective on UFO wave there would have been only 3 major waves: 1897-98, 1952, and 1973.
Statistically, the 1952 UFO wave was the largest one in the United States between 1947 and 1973. The famous ufologist Allan Hynek did a detailed review of all cases submitted to the Project Blue Book (from 1947 to 1969). His analysis was based on the 600 or so cases (out of 13,000) that were considered as "Unidentified."[1] Of those 600 cases, 242 occurred in 1952 (out of about 400 sightings over all reported to Blue Book for 1952), making it the peak year for the period covered by the Project Blue Book. 1954 came as a distant second with 46 “Unidentified” cases.[2]
If one pushes the analysis further within the year 1952, the peak month was July with 55 “unidentified” cases, followed by June with 40 cases, August with 28 cases and September with 27 cases.[3] Hynek did not extend his analysis to cases within the month of July 1952. However, if one uses the NICAP compilation of reports (which does not distinguish between “identified” and “unidentified”), there was three peaks in July: a small peak of sightings on July 12, a second peak between 21 and 23 July, and the biggest peak between 27 and 29 July.[4]
The 1952 sightings occurred across the United States, from the West coast to the East coast, as well as where there were U.S. military installations (Korea, Okinawa, Greenland, Newfoundland, Germany). This military nature of sightings was simply a reporting effect, as many cases reported to the Project Blue Book came as a requirement for military personnel to report such observations. The events that grabbed the most attention, however, were two series of sightings that occurred around Washington D.C., interestingly a day before each of the main peaks for July, namely on the night of July 19-20, and the night of July 26-27.
(Notoriously fake picture done with automobiles light reflecting on a glass)
The MPI model for RSPK: The 4 phases
To test the hypothesis that UFO waves would be “grand scale poltergeists,” it is essential to evaluated whether UFO waves share the same fundamental characteristics that of RSPK events. On the surface, these two types of phenomena appear completely distinct. RSPKs occur usually in a house or a work place, they tend to involve the inexplicable movement, destruction or disappearance of mundane objects such as glasses, cutlery, bookshelves, windows, mirrors, etc. RSPKs are often linked to a particular individual in a family or work context.
Yet, if one looks beyond the surface and compare the structural components of UFO waves and RSPKs, one can find striking similarities. According to von Lucadou, RSPKs go through four phases, where the phenomenon tends to increase in intensity at the beginning, peak and then rapidly disappear. The four phases are: (1) surprise, (2) displacement, (3) decline, and (4) suppression. Let’s compare these phases with the 1952 UFO wave.
Phase one: the surprise
Von Lucadou describes the first phase in those terms: “Generally, their onset is completely unexpected and they develop dramatically. As long as those involved believe that the events are due to external factors, like someone who is fooling them, impulses in electrical circuitry, leaking pipes, etc., the phenomena become stronger and grow into a real demonstration. Those involved feel ever more insecure and try to find external assistance, for example from the police, firemen or from institutions who can provide technical assistance. In this way the phenomena attract wide attention. In many cases there are a number of respectable, reliable and independent witnesses, who feel completely desperate about the causes of the phenomena. We call this the ‘surprise phase.’” [5]
The 1952 events in Washington are very similar in their structure to the surprise phase. Around 11:40 pm on 19 July 1952, the air controller Edward Nugent at the National Airport noticed on the radar a strange blip showing a high rate of acceleration. He called the senior controller, Harry Barnes, to confirm the radar returns. They then verified that their equipment was functioning properly, which was the case. They asked and got confirmation from a second radar station at the National Airport. Another controller, Howard Cocklin, saw orange lights in the night sky in the direction where the radar returns were coming. They asked confirmation from the radar crew at Andrews Air Force Base (AFB), and there was no return, but two military persons in different locations, William Brady and Bill Goodman, saw orange lights in the sky. [6] It is interesting to note that Nugent and Barnes did not know what to think of all this, but they never thought that these returns were “ flying saucers” or Russians aircrafts, and that if they did not appeared to be manufactured objects, they seemed to be under intelligent control.[7]
Later on during the night, 3 different radar stations had the same strange returns. F-94 jet fighters were scrambles during the night but to no avail, the objects disappeared.
Phase two: Displacement
The second phase is described as thus: “It is followed by the first hunches that something supernatural might be going on. Indeed, the media, such as newspapers, radio and television show up. Depending upon the socio-cultural background, the phenomena may be attributed to phantoms, spirits, the deceased, witches, poltergeists and parapsychological powers. Only at this point do parapsychologists have the opportunity to get involved. Quite often the previous phase of hunches has already attributed the phenomena to one or more persons, and has coupled general desperation and anxieties with curiosity: the "displacement phase". During this phase, the interpretation of the phenomena shifts from external to internal sources. The same displacement takes place in the phenomena themselves. New types of events manifest, replacing those that had become familiar.” [8]
On the 21 July 1952, newspapers were reporting that “flying saucers” were seen in the sky of Washington D.C., but the coverage was relatively limited. Yet, the story was now out. During the second set of sightings, on 26-27 July, there were several journalists in the National Airport radar room. [9]The story repeats itself in many ways, but with some differences. The first sightings occurred during the day, in the afternoon of 26 July that are noticed visually and on radar at Langley AFB. Then, the crew of an airliner of National Airlines saw glowing lights around 8:30 pm. It is only around 10:30 that the National Airport radars returned something unusual, and the controllers started the process of getting confirmation.
During the night, several F-94 jets fighters were scrambled and in some occasion were able to see strange lights and even had briefly their combat radar locked on those lights. But then, too, the object just vanished to come back later during the night. Although no one had any confirmation that the objects were solid as there was only radar returns and the visual sightings of lights, the press on the next morning did not hesitate to talk about D.C. being swarmed by “flying saucers”.
Phase three: Decline
The third phase is von Lucadou’s model is the one of decline. “As bad as matters are, worse is still to come. Journalists hungry for sensation, self-appointed "parapsychologists" or "exorcists" will plague those involved. To the external curiosity is added an ever-stronger pressure to reproduce the phenomena, which are still strongly confirmed by the initial eyewitnesses. The stronger this pressure grows, sometimes even enhanced by the parapsychologists who rush to the scene, the less the phenomena occur: the "decline phase" has begun. Many of those who expected sensational effects are now disappointed and leave. Often enough, the person who evoked the events is found to make use of manipulations or fraud during this phase.” [11]
This phase occurred also in the 1952 wave. The word was out, and even President Truman wanted to be informed about what was going on. The journalists were on the alert for more, but no more major sighting occurred in the Washington D.C. area, and in fact the 1952 wave started to decline in August, as discussed above. The most significant event of this phase is the 29 July military press conference at the Pentagon, where senior military officials and head of technical services of the Air Force concluded that it was a big misunderstanding and that the radar returns were most likely caused by temperature inversion while the lights in the sky were simply stars having the appearance of wobbling because of humidity in the atmosphere. In other words, all the witnesses were wrong even if they were experienced technicians and military personnel.[12]
Phase four: suppression
The last phase of the MPI model is called suppression, and should be quite familiar to those who know the ufological literature. “Decline is followed by the final phase of poltergeist cases: ’suppression.’ Fraud is more or less openly discussed, the people and witnesses involved are often ridiculed and discriminated in the mass media, witnesses may even deny (in court) their previous statements and debunking articles are published. The process of social suppression starts: a ‘conspiracy to cover it up,’ as Fanny Moser (1977, p. 30) termed it.”[13] Such conspiracy, however, is not caused because people have secrets to hide, but rather because they not want to be seen as being ignorant or powerless. As von Lucadou wrote, “neither society nor governmental institutions are fond of the anarchy of poltergeist cases. Their objective is to command (or govern) reliable systems.”[14]
In the case of the 1952 UFO wave, the suppression was done mostly through the efforts of the so-called Robertson panel[15], that also concluded that 90% of UFO sightings are mistakes or hoaxes, and the 10% remaining could be accounted for by temperature inversion phenomena and other more exotic natural phenomena. The panel also recommended that a mass public education programme about UFOs should be put in place so that the U.S. Air Force would not get swamped by reports from civilians. Although the report was classified, several parts of it became public in 1956 when Edward Ruppelt, who was head of the Project Blue Book up to the end of 1953, published his book The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects.
Phases and pragmatic information
These four phases are not simply descriptive characteristics of a RSPK, they actually represent a process of transferring pragmatic information necessary for psi effects to occur. Such information flow will be the topic of part 2 of this case study.
References for Part 1
[1] Hynek, J. Allen. The Hynek UFO Report. New York: Dell, 1977, p. 264.
[2] Idem.
[3] Hynek, J. Allen. The Hynek UFO Report. New York: Dell, 1977, p. 263.
[4]NICAP. “The 1952 Sighting Wave” on the Internet at: http://www.nicap.org/waves/1952fullrep.htm , consulted 27 June 2009.
[5] Lucadou, Walter von and F. Zahradnik. (2004). “Predictions of the Model of Pragmatic Information about RSPK”. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 (99-112), p. 100.
[6] From Randle, Kevin D. (2001). Invasion Washington: UFOs over the Capitol. New York: Harper Collins, pp. 32-34.
[7] Ibid., p. 39.
[8] Lucadou, Walter von and F. Zahradnik. (2004). “Predictions of the Model of Pragmatic Information about RSPK”. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 (99-112), p. 100.
[9] Randle, Kevin D. (2001). Invasion Washington: UFOs over the Capitol. New York: Harper Collins, p. 70.
[10] Ibid., pp. 68-74.
[11] Lucadou, Walter von and F. Zahradnik. (2004). “Predictions of the Model of Pragmatic Information about RSPK”. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association Convention 2004 (99-112), p. 100.
[12] For the full transcript please see the NICAP website on Internet at http://www.nicap.org/waves/pressconf_1952.htm
[13] Ibid., p. 101.
[14] Ibid., p. 105.
[15] For more on the Robertson Panel, please see the Durant report on the CUFON website on Internet at http://www.cufon.org/cufon/robert.htm
Eric Ouellet © 2009
Labels:
Case Study,
MPI,
RSPK,
UFO wave,
Washington D.C. 1952 wave
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